BIG 10 2003
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES O:7 D:6 (10-3)
The Wolverines put forth a very interesting squad for 2003. They’re loaded with talent on both sides of the ball as usual, and have the easiest schedule in the Big 10. They get all the major players in the conference in the “Big House” including Notre Dame, and have a very manageable non-conference slate. QB John Navarre returns for his senior season, and he’s got plenty of weapons at his disposal. RB Chris Perry returns after his 14 TD/1110 YD season to handle the ball carrying duties, and he’s got a dominant O-Line paving the way for him. Michigan has been looking for an O-Line to average over 5.0 YPC, and they just might have it this season with all 5 players having starting experience. Braylon Edwards anchors a very fast and deep WR core. He expects to top his numbers from last year, and the talk around Ann Arbor is that he’s the next David Terrell. I expect QB Navarre to have himself a fantastic season, and have NFL scouts drooling after him much the way they did with Carson Palmer last season. He has the best O-line he’s ever had protecting him, and a playmaker like Edwards will certainly amplify his numbers. The defense slipped a bit overall last year, but it’s still a very solid group. The D-line is less experienced than last year’s, but it has loads more depth. The LB core loses its stud from a year ago, but has more experience that will only help the stop unit’s cause. The secondary boasts one of the best CB duos in the country in Jackson & LeSueur, and they’ll drive opposing QB’s crazy. I’m sure everyone’s familiar with the Wolves FG kicking woes, and they still need to resolve that problem. Michigan really has a shot of bringing home the Big 10 consecutive National Championship’s if they play their cards right. I expect them to be undefeated when the Buckeyes stroll into town November 22nd, and a win there will most definitely send them to the Sugar Bowl in N’awlens.
-- UM is 1-7 ATS as a favorite of 5 or less since 1999.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES O:11 D:6 (14-0)
Who will ever forget about the Buckeyes 2002-03 season? I for one won’t considering we banked on them in the National Championship game vs. Miami, but it had all the drama and suspense of a trashy romance novel. For starter’s, I still say to this day that their double OT win over Miami was the greatest game I’ve ever seen in my life. Who will ever forget Krenzel’s toss to Michael Jenkins on 4th and 1 at Purdue, or some questionable calls in OT at Illinois? Either way, HC Tressel did what no other coach could do at OSU since the Woody Hayes days. This year’s squad has a bit of a different taste to it. They return their entire offense, but lose some key role players on “D”. QB Krenzel isn’t the greatest QB you’ve ever seen throw the pigskin, but his intelligence and speed are invaluable. The kid just always finds a way to get the job done, and he’ll only be that much better with a National Championship and another year of experience under his belt. Say what you want about Maurice Clarett!! He’s a stud in my book, and he’s got the heart of a lion. His forced fumble against Miami is a play I’ll never forget. He struggled with injuries throughout the year, but proved to be a gamer when healthy. RB Maurice Hall proved to be more than capable in his absence, and his return is huge for the Buckeye offense. WR Michael Jenkins will be the go to guy this year as Chris Gamble will concentrate more at the CB position. It helps that all but 1 skilled position player returns from last year’s team, but to have the entire O-line return is pure Nirvana. They paved the way for 4.3 YPC rushing last year, and there’s no telling what they’ll average this year with Tressel’s dominated run offense. The defense will be the Achilles heel of the Buckeyes that prevents them from repeating this year. They have just too many key losses from last year’s squad, and those players leadership will be sorely missed. Gone are LB’s Grant & Wilhelm, DE Peterson, and DB’s Doss & Nickey. They should be alright at the CB position with Fox & Gamble, but losing players like Doss and Nickey will be too much for them to overcome. The D-Line is stacked with speed and size, and DE Will Smith will look to better his numbers from a year ago. The LB core is short on experience, and replacing last year’s duo’s amount of tackles will take some time. The special teams will put out numbers that closely resembles last year’s squad, and FG kicking shouldn’t be a problem with K Mike Nugent returning. The Buckeyes have a much tougher road schedule this year, and it’ll be tough for them to escape Wiscy, Penn State, and Michigan unscathed. This year’s squad has loads of talent, but it will be close to impossible for them to pull of the same feats as last year considering the amount of key role players they lost. They will go bowling, but it won’t be for the whole enchilada.
-- OSU is 7-1 ATS their L/8 at home laying less then 10 points
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS O:8 D:9 (7-6)
Would you believe me if I told you the Boiler’s ranked 1st in many categories last year including out gaining their conference opponents? Well they did!!! They were a very unfortunate team last season as bad penalties, and turnover’s cost them many games. They have the talent to compete with the big boys this year, but their conference road schedule is an absolute killer. They have to go to Wiscy, Michigan, and Ohio State. We’ll know more about this team after October 25th. HC Joe Tiller seems to have chosen Kyle Orton as his gunslinger for this season, and the offense will be better off without a rotation. Orton has the ability to go downfield, and he’s got a full complement of WR’s to throw too. Basically all of last year’s wide-outs return with SR John Standeford leading the way. They’re a very talented group, and they’ll have Tiller’s fast paced high scoring offense back in form. The Boiler’s also have a duo of RB’s that ran for over 1700 yards, and a year’s worth of experience will only make them better. The wink link of the offense is the most important. The O-Line loses a bunch of consecutive year starters, and the new guys might have problems picking up the blocking schemes early on in the season. Purdue’s front 7 on defense is one of the best in the Big 10, and their secondary has loads of experience anchored by CB Reeves & FS Schweigert. Last year’s special teams were just horrible in every facet of the game, and they cost them a few games as well. Hopefully they can get a dependable FG kicker, b/c last year’s was atrocious. Purdue has the most returning starters in the conference, and they’ve got as much talent as anyone. The only problem is their conference schedule. It is very tough, and it’ll test them big time. I’m very high on the Boiler’s this season, and they could surprise a few teams in their own backyard if they’re not careful.
--HC Joe Tiller is 18-10 ATS as a home favorite.
WISCONSIN BADGERS 0:7 D:9 (8-6)
The Badgers are my dark horse of the Big 10. They have loads of talent, and enough experience to make some real noise this year. Wiscy had itself quite an offense last season that was dominated by its running game. Now they have a two-tiered offense with the return of WR Lee Evans. He missed all of last season with an injury, but you can expect his presence to really ignite the Badgers offense. QB Jim Sorgi will have no problem whatsoever taking over the starters role as he started 5 games, and played in 27 total games as Brooks Bollinger’s back-up the last few seasons. He’s very athletic, but he has to limit his INT’s. The Badger backfield will by led by the midget rocket, Anthony Davis, and his 5’8” frame. He’ll look to destroy opposing defenses once again, and extend Wiscy’s streak of 1000-yard rushers to 11 straight seasons. HC Alvarez always stockpiles his hogs on both lines. Last year’s O-line had huge aspirations, but they actually took a step back from their 2001 numbers. The losses are heavy this year, but I’m willing to bet Alvarez will have himself a solid line come Big 10 play. The defense returns 9 starters from last year’s team, and it looks to be one of the most improved defenses in the conference. The Badgers run defense was just awful a year ago, and their D-Line was one of the main reasons why. This year is a different story as 7 of their top 8 linemen return, and they’ll be much more stout against the run. Their LB core gained some valuable experience last season, and is the deepest it’s been in years. FS Jim Leonhard returns for his junior season to be the active leader of the secondary. He led the country in INT’s last season with 11, and broke Nick Davis’ punt returning record at Wiscy. He’s one of those live wires that always seems to make at least one big play in a game that completely changes its make-up. The Badger defense is not to be laughed at this season, and many a team will be unfortunate if they do. Wisconsin has proved to be Big 10 road warriors the last 5 seasons as they’ve compiled a 13-7 record. They have 4 very winnable conference road games, and get the big boys in Camp Randall. Last year’s squad was nowhere near as talented or deep as this year’s version, and they still compiled an 8-6 record and won their bowl game. That’s kind of scary if you think about it, and it really provides some hard evidence in backing up my theory of Wiscy being the dark horse this season.
-- Wiscy is a pathetic 4-12 ATS as a home chalk the L/3 seasons, but 3-0 the L/2 yrs as a home pup.
MINNESOTTA GOLDEN GOPHERS O:7 D:9 (8-5)
The Gophers have their best squad of the Mason era this season, and look to top last seasons 8 wins. They have a very explosive offense led by SR QB Abdul-Khaliq. Injuries have hampered him throughout his career, but he has his best O-line ever blocking for him & he should surpass last season’s stellar numbers. Minny boasts a very deep and athletic backfield. The trio of Barber, Tapeh, and Jackson will certainly rack up some solid yardage, and open up the field for TE Ben Utecht & WR Hosack to cause some damage. The defense returns 9 starters, and the experience they gained from a year ago will only help bolster their confidence. The front 7 returns completely, and that can only increase the defenses chance of improving on last seasons numbers. They’ll need to step it up big time as the Gopher defense was just crushed on the ground. The secondary returns 7 of its top 8 players from a year ago. The defense as a whole isn’t a dominating group, but getting their asses’ ripped all of last year should make them a tougher unit in ’03. The Gophers won their first bowl game in 17 years last season, and they’ll most likely return to a bowl this year. They can hang their hat on their offense, and their defense will be a bit tougher than last year’s version. They have a few winnable games on the Big 10 road, and they get the conference powers in the dome. They are capable of pulling off 1 or 2 upsets at home if they play their cards right, and they could find themselves in a Jan 1st bowl game.
--Minny’s 13-7 ATS vs. non-conf opponents since 1996
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS O:5 D:6 (9-4)
I was very high on this squad last year, but injuries to their field general prohibited them from going as far as I predicted. JoPa has his work cut out for him this season as he loses a ton from last season’s 9-4 squad. QB Zak Mills returns for his JR season, and he’s one of the best QB’s in the country when healthy. He had a tough season in 2002 suffering from numerous injuries that hampered his play. Hopefully he’s healthy this time around, b/c he’s going to need his legs to get away from opposing defenses. The O-line loses 4 starters from last year’s squad, but has some very high rated players stepping in to take their place. They won’t be as dominating as last year’s version, but with time could develop into one of the better lines in the conference. They’ll be anchored by RT Chris McKelvy who you might have seen on an ESPN special about high school football a few year’s back. Pretty cool to see him develop into such a giant…LOL. It goes without saying that their running game will drop off as well with the loss of Heisman Finalist Larry Johnson, but FB Sean McHugh is back to pave the way for whomever’s running the rock. The WR core loses its top guy, but the experience is there. WR Tony Johnson will be the #1 guy, and I expect him to have a huge year with the Lion’s relying more on the pass in ’03. This year’s defense will be stronger in the back 7 as they lose tons of size and experience to the NFL. The LB core returns completely intact, and the secondary should improve on LY’s numbers with the additions of some former starters. Jopa always preached excellent play on special teams, so you can expect them to be near the top of the rankings all season long. The Lions have a tough non-conference game on the road at Nebraska in September, and they could find themselves 3-1 before the start of Big 10 play. They have a manageable conference road schedule, and get OSU & Wiscy at home. Their destiny is completely up to them, but I just don’t think they have the tools in the shed to get the job done this time around. Even at home!!!!
--PSU is 11-4 ATS vs. the Big 10 the L/2yrs, and 7-1 ATS in Big 10 road games the L/2yrs.
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI O:6 D:7 (5-7)
The Illini followed up their first Big 10 Championship season with a complete dud. They went a respectable 4-4 in conference play, but 5-7 overall with some very bad losses. They did play much better down the stretch, but their defense was just terrible throughout the entire season. They return 7 from last year’s stop unit, so progress is expected. They’re stacked in their front 7, and I expect them to really make some noise. How can you not love a guy named Bevis playing LB for you….LOL. They had 26 sacks last season, and I expect them to better those numbers this time around. The secondary has to replace its 2 starting CB’s, but returns LY’s safeties in Marc Jackson & Travis Williams. They will improve on LY’s numbers as well. Hopefully HC Ron Turner will stick to 1 QB this season instead of going with a rotation. An offense never seems to get going whenever the QB’s are shuffled week to week or every other series. A RB still has to emerge to take over for a departed Antonio Harris, but you can be sure FB Carey Davis will be paving the way for whoever it is. The WR core takes a major hit with the departures of Lloyd and Young, but they have some very capable athletes ready to fill in. TE Anthony McClellan will provide a big target for the QB, and keep an eye open for WR Kelvin Hayden. The O-line is a bit smaller, and less experienced than last season’s version. The Illini have some talent on this year’s squad, but the team has suffered some major losses and it’ll take some time for the team to adjust. They really played much better in November of last year giving the Buckeyes a scare at home in OT, and pounding Wiscy at Camp Randall. Hopefully they carry that momentum into the early part of this season, and take care of business against their non-conference foes. A loss to Illinois State would be disastrous, but I don’t foresee that happening after losing to the mighty San Jose Spartans in Champagne last year. They avoid Ohio St & Penn State this season, so I’ll call for them to get back over .500 and avoid back-to-back losing seasons.
-- The Illini have won their L/3 Homecoming games both SU & ATS.
IOWA HAWKEYES O:4 D:7 (11-2)
The Hawkeyes had themselves one heck of a cinderella season in 2002. Most Hawkeye fans said they were cheated out of the Big 10 Championship, but their schedule left OSU off of it. They also didn’t do themselves much of a favor by getting blasted by USC. HC Ferentz has done one heck of a job since taking over the program posting consecutive winning seasons. This year will be a bit tougher for him as there are many losses to account for. Gone is AP player of the year QB Brad Banks, and 4 of the 5 O-Line starter’s that only gave up a measly 13 sacks. RB Fred Russell returns, but he’ll be very hard pressed to get the holes he was so used to running through last season. The WR core has as much experience as last year’s squad, but the loss of a TE like Dallas Clark has to limit their production. The O-line will need some time to gel as well. The defense is their trump card for the season. The front 7 loses some key cogs, but it could be just as productive as last season’s squad that held opposing teams to rush for 2.6 YPC while sacking the QB 38 times. The secondary has the sparkplug that’ll make this defense go. SS Bob Sanders is a mean SOB, but he’s got his hands full with everyone else being a little green. Special teams will play a major role in how Iowa attacks every one of its opponents. This is an area in which they excel, and they’ll have to squeeze it to the max to really put their opposition at a disadvantage. Lou Groza award winner Nate Kaeding returns for the kicking duties as does Punter David Bradley. Their kick coverage led the nation last season, and leaving their opposition a larger field to work with is a must if their defense is to shut them down. Their schedule is just awful this year as well both home and away, and the player losses will be too much for them to overcome. Iowa will most definitely take a step back this season.
--IOWA is 23-11-1 ATS the L/3 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS 0:7 D:9 (3-9)
UNW went through a rebuilding season last year, and it looks as if it will pay off for them in ’03. They played a very tough schedule a year ago as 7 of the 12 teams they played went bowling. This year’s squad returns 16 starters, and a soft non-conference slate could have them at 4-0 once Big 10 play begins. HC Randy Walker likes to run an explosive offense, and we’ve seen what it’s been able to do over the 4 seasons he’s been there. Running his quick strike attack this year is SO QB Brett Basanez. He should a knack for finding the open receiver downfield, and he has great mobility. There are also plenty of capable backups who saw the field last season due to numerous QB injuries. RB Jason Wright returns for his SR season, and he looks to eclipse his 1200 yards from a year ago. The WR core is always fast and athletic, and it returns pretty much everyone from last year’s squad. The O-line is a bit raw, but it should have no problem picking up the blocking techniques of this fast paced offense. The defense is what really has folks in Evanston ready to go for this season. Yes, I said defense!!! I know they purple uniforms aren’t the most intimidating uni’s around, but a MLB by the name of Pat Durr is. He missed all of last season with a broken leg. He had 103 tackles and 9 tackles for a loss in 2001, and his return will only make the Wildcats that more confident. Their front 7 returns completely intact, and last year’s MLB, John Pickens, is now a back up. They have tons of depth as well as experience coming into this season, and teams will not be able to run through them like a warm knife through butter. The secondary suffered a few losses, but their replacements are fine athletes that have been converted from the offensive side of the ball. Watch out for little Jeff Backes playing CB…he could be the next Jim Leonhard from Wiscy. Last season was a complete and utter nightmare for the Cats. They suffered through loads of injuries, and got clobbered in most of their games. I expect the Cats to take a giant step forward this season, and for them to flirt with a winning record.
--UNW is 6-1 ATS vs. Michigan since 1992.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS O:7 D:8 (4-8)
I’m still in shock as to how bad this team was last year. I’m not going to get into it, but the Spartans have a solid coach now that has shown he can win at the collegiate level. The way he took the job is another story, but we’ll see what kind of effect he has on this team. He inherits a team full of talent that got caught up in a bunch of turmoil that forced the team to go on a downward spiral. Their defense really suffered last season as they were out gained by 97 YPG, which was the worst in Big 10 play. The stop unit returns 8 players from last year, so improvement is expected. The front 7 returns completely intact so I expect them to limit opposing offenses rushing abilities. The secondary takes a hit, but the replacement players rank high as prospects. The offense will most likely be run by Jeff Smoker whose looking to atone for his sins from a year ago, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see HC smith lean to Drew Stanton whom he compares to Dave Ragone. The RB’s should have an easier go at it this year as the O-line is said to have taken it up a notch. It will take some time for them to gel since they have to learn new blocking techniques, but early reports say the line is picking them up rather quickly. I expect them to be a more formidable force later in the season. You can only expect the WR core to drop off in production with the loss of WR Charles Rogers, but there is some talent returning. Special teams can only improve after ranking in the lower third of the league last season. MSU’s non-conference slate is filled with a bunch of cream puffs, but their Big 10 schedule is a killer. I expect them to better last seasons 4 win total, and a trip to a bowl game in HC Smith’s first season is definitely a possibility.
-- MSU is 2-9 ATS as a home chalk the L/2 year’s.
INDIANA HOOSIERS O:7 D:7 (3-9)
HC Gerry Dinardo did a fine job in his debut season with the talent on hand. His program is still very young, and not deep at all. This will be another tough season for the Hoosier faithful, but it will be much better down the road. QB Matt Lovecchio is a name you might remember from when he played at Notre Dame, and he is now the starting QB for the Hoosiers. His experience alone will cut down on the amount of TO’s this season. All the specialty players on offense return, and the O-line is in its second year of picking up the new blocking schemes. The offense should be more efficient this season, but is still a year or 2 away from being a formidable group. The D-line returns 3 starters from a year ago, and has plenty more depth. They should improve on last year’s numbers as long as they stay healthy. The LB core looks pretty weak, but the secondary looks to make a giant leap in the Big 10 standings. It doesn’t look good for the Hoosiers this year at all, but I believe HC Dinardo was the right man to turn this program around. He proved to be a winning coach in the SEC at LSU, and he’s done a solid job already taking over for Cam Cameron. Some say that patience is a virtue, and fellow Hoosiers will need a bunch of it till August of next year.
-- Indy’s 4-6 ATS as a road pup the L/2 years.
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES O:7 D:6 (10-3)
The Wolverines put forth a very interesting squad for 2003. They’re loaded with talent on both sides of the ball as usual, and have the easiest schedule in the Big 10. They get all the major players in the conference in the “Big House” including Notre Dame, and have a very manageable non-conference slate. QB John Navarre returns for his senior season, and he’s got plenty of weapons at his disposal. RB Chris Perry returns after his 14 TD/1110 YD season to handle the ball carrying duties, and he’s got a dominant O-Line paving the way for him. Michigan has been looking for an O-Line to average over 5.0 YPC, and they just might have it this season with all 5 players having starting experience. Braylon Edwards anchors a very fast and deep WR core. He expects to top his numbers from last year, and the talk around Ann Arbor is that he’s the next David Terrell. I expect QB Navarre to have himself a fantastic season, and have NFL scouts drooling after him much the way they did with Carson Palmer last season. He has the best O-line he’s ever had protecting him, and a playmaker like Edwards will certainly amplify his numbers. The defense slipped a bit overall last year, but it’s still a very solid group. The D-line is less experienced than last year’s, but it has loads more depth. The LB core loses its stud from a year ago, but has more experience that will only help the stop unit’s cause. The secondary boasts one of the best CB duos in the country in Jackson & LeSueur, and they’ll drive opposing QB’s crazy. I’m sure everyone’s familiar with the Wolves FG kicking woes, and they still need to resolve that problem. Michigan really has a shot of bringing home the Big 10 consecutive National Championship’s if they play their cards right. I expect them to be undefeated when the Buckeyes stroll into town November 22nd, and a win there will most definitely send them to the Sugar Bowl in N’awlens.
-- UM is 1-7 ATS as a favorite of 5 or less since 1999.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES O:11 D:6 (14-0)
Who will ever forget about the Buckeyes 2002-03 season? I for one won’t considering we banked on them in the National Championship game vs. Miami, but it had all the drama and suspense of a trashy romance novel. For starter’s, I still say to this day that their double OT win over Miami was the greatest game I’ve ever seen in my life. Who will ever forget Krenzel’s toss to Michael Jenkins on 4th and 1 at Purdue, or some questionable calls in OT at Illinois? Either way, HC Tressel did what no other coach could do at OSU since the Woody Hayes days. This year’s squad has a bit of a different taste to it. They return their entire offense, but lose some key role players on “D”. QB Krenzel isn’t the greatest QB you’ve ever seen throw the pigskin, but his intelligence and speed are invaluable. The kid just always finds a way to get the job done, and he’ll only be that much better with a National Championship and another year of experience under his belt. Say what you want about Maurice Clarett!! He’s a stud in my book, and he’s got the heart of a lion. His forced fumble against Miami is a play I’ll never forget. He struggled with injuries throughout the year, but proved to be a gamer when healthy. RB Maurice Hall proved to be more than capable in his absence, and his return is huge for the Buckeye offense. WR Michael Jenkins will be the go to guy this year as Chris Gamble will concentrate more at the CB position. It helps that all but 1 skilled position player returns from last year’s team, but to have the entire O-line return is pure Nirvana. They paved the way for 4.3 YPC rushing last year, and there’s no telling what they’ll average this year with Tressel’s dominated run offense. The defense will be the Achilles heel of the Buckeyes that prevents them from repeating this year. They have just too many key losses from last year’s squad, and those players leadership will be sorely missed. Gone are LB’s Grant & Wilhelm, DE Peterson, and DB’s Doss & Nickey. They should be alright at the CB position with Fox & Gamble, but losing players like Doss and Nickey will be too much for them to overcome. The D-Line is stacked with speed and size, and DE Will Smith will look to better his numbers from a year ago. The LB core is short on experience, and replacing last year’s duo’s amount of tackles will take some time. The special teams will put out numbers that closely resembles last year’s squad, and FG kicking shouldn’t be a problem with K Mike Nugent returning. The Buckeyes have a much tougher road schedule this year, and it’ll be tough for them to escape Wiscy, Penn State, and Michigan unscathed. This year’s squad has loads of talent, but it will be close to impossible for them to pull of the same feats as last year considering the amount of key role players they lost. They will go bowling, but it won’t be for the whole enchilada.
-- OSU is 7-1 ATS their L/8 at home laying less then 10 points
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS O:8 D:9 (7-6)
Would you believe me if I told you the Boiler’s ranked 1st in many categories last year including out gaining their conference opponents? Well they did!!! They were a very unfortunate team last season as bad penalties, and turnover’s cost them many games. They have the talent to compete with the big boys this year, but their conference road schedule is an absolute killer. They have to go to Wiscy, Michigan, and Ohio State. We’ll know more about this team after October 25th. HC Joe Tiller seems to have chosen Kyle Orton as his gunslinger for this season, and the offense will be better off without a rotation. Orton has the ability to go downfield, and he’s got a full complement of WR’s to throw too. Basically all of last year’s wide-outs return with SR John Standeford leading the way. They’re a very talented group, and they’ll have Tiller’s fast paced high scoring offense back in form. The Boiler’s also have a duo of RB’s that ran for over 1700 yards, and a year’s worth of experience will only make them better. The wink link of the offense is the most important. The O-Line loses a bunch of consecutive year starters, and the new guys might have problems picking up the blocking schemes early on in the season. Purdue’s front 7 on defense is one of the best in the Big 10, and their secondary has loads of experience anchored by CB Reeves & FS Schweigert. Last year’s special teams were just horrible in every facet of the game, and they cost them a few games as well. Hopefully they can get a dependable FG kicker, b/c last year’s was atrocious. Purdue has the most returning starters in the conference, and they’ve got as much talent as anyone. The only problem is their conference schedule. It is very tough, and it’ll test them big time. I’m very high on the Boiler’s this season, and they could surprise a few teams in their own backyard if they’re not careful.
--HC Joe Tiller is 18-10 ATS as a home favorite.
WISCONSIN BADGERS 0:7 D:9 (8-6)
The Badgers are my dark horse of the Big 10. They have loads of talent, and enough experience to make some real noise this year. Wiscy had itself quite an offense last season that was dominated by its running game. Now they have a two-tiered offense with the return of WR Lee Evans. He missed all of last season with an injury, but you can expect his presence to really ignite the Badgers offense. QB Jim Sorgi will have no problem whatsoever taking over the starters role as he started 5 games, and played in 27 total games as Brooks Bollinger’s back-up the last few seasons. He’s very athletic, but he has to limit his INT’s. The Badger backfield will by led by the midget rocket, Anthony Davis, and his 5’8” frame. He’ll look to destroy opposing defenses once again, and extend Wiscy’s streak of 1000-yard rushers to 11 straight seasons. HC Alvarez always stockpiles his hogs on both lines. Last year’s O-line had huge aspirations, but they actually took a step back from their 2001 numbers. The losses are heavy this year, but I’m willing to bet Alvarez will have himself a solid line come Big 10 play. The defense returns 9 starters from last year’s team, and it looks to be one of the most improved defenses in the conference. The Badgers run defense was just awful a year ago, and their D-Line was one of the main reasons why. This year is a different story as 7 of their top 8 linemen return, and they’ll be much more stout against the run. Their LB core gained some valuable experience last season, and is the deepest it’s been in years. FS Jim Leonhard returns for his junior season to be the active leader of the secondary. He led the country in INT’s last season with 11, and broke Nick Davis’ punt returning record at Wiscy. He’s one of those live wires that always seems to make at least one big play in a game that completely changes its make-up. The Badger defense is not to be laughed at this season, and many a team will be unfortunate if they do. Wisconsin has proved to be Big 10 road warriors the last 5 seasons as they’ve compiled a 13-7 record. They have 4 very winnable conference road games, and get the big boys in Camp Randall. Last year’s squad was nowhere near as talented or deep as this year’s version, and they still compiled an 8-6 record and won their bowl game. That’s kind of scary if you think about it, and it really provides some hard evidence in backing up my theory of Wiscy being the dark horse this season.
-- Wiscy is a pathetic 4-12 ATS as a home chalk the L/3 seasons, but 3-0 the L/2 yrs as a home pup.
MINNESOTTA GOLDEN GOPHERS O:7 D:9 (8-5)
The Gophers have their best squad of the Mason era this season, and look to top last seasons 8 wins. They have a very explosive offense led by SR QB Abdul-Khaliq. Injuries have hampered him throughout his career, but he has his best O-line ever blocking for him & he should surpass last season’s stellar numbers. Minny boasts a very deep and athletic backfield. The trio of Barber, Tapeh, and Jackson will certainly rack up some solid yardage, and open up the field for TE Ben Utecht & WR Hosack to cause some damage. The defense returns 9 starters, and the experience they gained from a year ago will only help bolster their confidence. The front 7 returns completely, and that can only increase the defenses chance of improving on last seasons numbers. They’ll need to step it up big time as the Gopher defense was just crushed on the ground. The secondary returns 7 of its top 8 players from a year ago. The defense as a whole isn’t a dominating group, but getting their asses’ ripped all of last year should make them a tougher unit in ’03. The Gophers won their first bowl game in 17 years last season, and they’ll most likely return to a bowl this year. They can hang their hat on their offense, and their defense will be a bit tougher than last year’s version. They have a few winnable games on the Big 10 road, and they get the conference powers in the dome. They are capable of pulling off 1 or 2 upsets at home if they play their cards right, and they could find themselves in a Jan 1st bowl game.
--Minny’s 13-7 ATS vs. non-conf opponents since 1996
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS O:5 D:6 (9-4)
I was very high on this squad last year, but injuries to their field general prohibited them from going as far as I predicted. JoPa has his work cut out for him this season as he loses a ton from last season’s 9-4 squad. QB Zak Mills returns for his JR season, and he’s one of the best QB’s in the country when healthy. He had a tough season in 2002 suffering from numerous injuries that hampered his play. Hopefully he’s healthy this time around, b/c he’s going to need his legs to get away from opposing defenses. The O-line loses 4 starters from last year’s squad, but has some very high rated players stepping in to take their place. They won’t be as dominating as last year’s version, but with time could develop into one of the better lines in the conference. They’ll be anchored by RT Chris McKelvy who you might have seen on an ESPN special about high school football a few year’s back. Pretty cool to see him develop into such a giant…LOL. It goes without saying that their running game will drop off as well with the loss of Heisman Finalist Larry Johnson, but FB Sean McHugh is back to pave the way for whomever’s running the rock. The WR core loses its top guy, but the experience is there. WR Tony Johnson will be the #1 guy, and I expect him to have a huge year with the Lion’s relying more on the pass in ’03. This year’s defense will be stronger in the back 7 as they lose tons of size and experience to the NFL. The LB core returns completely intact, and the secondary should improve on LY’s numbers with the additions of some former starters. Jopa always preached excellent play on special teams, so you can expect them to be near the top of the rankings all season long. The Lions have a tough non-conference game on the road at Nebraska in September, and they could find themselves 3-1 before the start of Big 10 play. They have a manageable conference road schedule, and get OSU & Wiscy at home. Their destiny is completely up to them, but I just don’t think they have the tools in the shed to get the job done this time around. Even at home!!!!
--PSU is 11-4 ATS vs. the Big 10 the L/2yrs, and 7-1 ATS in Big 10 road games the L/2yrs.
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI O:6 D:7 (5-7)
The Illini followed up their first Big 10 Championship season with a complete dud. They went a respectable 4-4 in conference play, but 5-7 overall with some very bad losses. They did play much better down the stretch, but their defense was just terrible throughout the entire season. They return 7 from last year’s stop unit, so progress is expected. They’re stacked in their front 7, and I expect them to really make some noise. How can you not love a guy named Bevis playing LB for you….LOL. They had 26 sacks last season, and I expect them to better those numbers this time around. The secondary has to replace its 2 starting CB’s, but returns LY’s safeties in Marc Jackson & Travis Williams. They will improve on LY’s numbers as well. Hopefully HC Ron Turner will stick to 1 QB this season instead of going with a rotation. An offense never seems to get going whenever the QB’s are shuffled week to week or every other series. A RB still has to emerge to take over for a departed Antonio Harris, but you can be sure FB Carey Davis will be paving the way for whoever it is. The WR core takes a major hit with the departures of Lloyd and Young, but they have some very capable athletes ready to fill in. TE Anthony McClellan will provide a big target for the QB, and keep an eye open for WR Kelvin Hayden. The O-line is a bit smaller, and less experienced than last season’s version. The Illini have some talent on this year’s squad, but the team has suffered some major losses and it’ll take some time for the team to adjust. They really played much better in November of last year giving the Buckeyes a scare at home in OT, and pounding Wiscy at Camp Randall. Hopefully they carry that momentum into the early part of this season, and take care of business against their non-conference foes. A loss to Illinois State would be disastrous, but I don’t foresee that happening after losing to the mighty San Jose Spartans in Champagne last year. They avoid Ohio St & Penn State this season, so I’ll call for them to get back over .500 and avoid back-to-back losing seasons.
-- The Illini have won their L/3 Homecoming games both SU & ATS.
IOWA HAWKEYES O:4 D:7 (11-2)
The Hawkeyes had themselves one heck of a cinderella season in 2002. Most Hawkeye fans said they were cheated out of the Big 10 Championship, but their schedule left OSU off of it. They also didn’t do themselves much of a favor by getting blasted by USC. HC Ferentz has done one heck of a job since taking over the program posting consecutive winning seasons. This year will be a bit tougher for him as there are many losses to account for. Gone is AP player of the year QB Brad Banks, and 4 of the 5 O-Line starter’s that only gave up a measly 13 sacks. RB Fred Russell returns, but he’ll be very hard pressed to get the holes he was so used to running through last season. The WR core has as much experience as last year’s squad, but the loss of a TE like Dallas Clark has to limit their production. The O-line will need some time to gel as well. The defense is their trump card for the season. The front 7 loses some key cogs, but it could be just as productive as last season’s squad that held opposing teams to rush for 2.6 YPC while sacking the QB 38 times. The secondary has the sparkplug that’ll make this defense go. SS Bob Sanders is a mean SOB, but he’s got his hands full with everyone else being a little green. Special teams will play a major role in how Iowa attacks every one of its opponents. This is an area in which they excel, and they’ll have to squeeze it to the max to really put their opposition at a disadvantage. Lou Groza award winner Nate Kaeding returns for the kicking duties as does Punter David Bradley. Their kick coverage led the nation last season, and leaving their opposition a larger field to work with is a must if their defense is to shut them down. Their schedule is just awful this year as well both home and away, and the player losses will be too much for them to overcome. Iowa will most definitely take a step back this season.
--IOWA is 23-11-1 ATS the L/3 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS 0:7 D:9 (3-9)
UNW went through a rebuilding season last year, and it looks as if it will pay off for them in ’03. They played a very tough schedule a year ago as 7 of the 12 teams they played went bowling. This year’s squad returns 16 starters, and a soft non-conference slate could have them at 4-0 once Big 10 play begins. HC Randy Walker likes to run an explosive offense, and we’ve seen what it’s been able to do over the 4 seasons he’s been there. Running his quick strike attack this year is SO QB Brett Basanez. He should a knack for finding the open receiver downfield, and he has great mobility. There are also plenty of capable backups who saw the field last season due to numerous QB injuries. RB Jason Wright returns for his SR season, and he looks to eclipse his 1200 yards from a year ago. The WR core is always fast and athletic, and it returns pretty much everyone from last year’s squad. The O-line is a bit raw, but it should have no problem picking up the blocking techniques of this fast paced offense. The defense is what really has folks in Evanston ready to go for this season. Yes, I said defense!!! I know they purple uniforms aren’t the most intimidating uni’s around, but a MLB by the name of Pat Durr is. He missed all of last season with a broken leg. He had 103 tackles and 9 tackles for a loss in 2001, and his return will only make the Wildcats that more confident. Their front 7 returns completely intact, and last year’s MLB, John Pickens, is now a back up. They have tons of depth as well as experience coming into this season, and teams will not be able to run through them like a warm knife through butter. The secondary suffered a few losses, but their replacements are fine athletes that have been converted from the offensive side of the ball. Watch out for little Jeff Backes playing CB…he could be the next Jim Leonhard from Wiscy. Last season was a complete and utter nightmare for the Cats. They suffered through loads of injuries, and got clobbered in most of their games. I expect the Cats to take a giant step forward this season, and for them to flirt with a winning record.
--UNW is 6-1 ATS vs. Michigan since 1992.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS O:7 D:8 (4-8)
I’m still in shock as to how bad this team was last year. I’m not going to get into it, but the Spartans have a solid coach now that has shown he can win at the collegiate level. The way he took the job is another story, but we’ll see what kind of effect he has on this team. He inherits a team full of talent that got caught up in a bunch of turmoil that forced the team to go on a downward spiral. Their defense really suffered last season as they were out gained by 97 YPG, which was the worst in Big 10 play. The stop unit returns 8 players from last year, so improvement is expected. The front 7 returns completely intact so I expect them to limit opposing offenses rushing abilities. The secondary takes a hit, but the replacement players rank high as prospects. The offense will most likely be run by Jeff Smoker whose looking to atone for his sins from a year ago, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see HC smith lean to Drew Stanton whom he compares to Dave Ragone. The RB’s should have an easier go at it this year as the O-line is said to have taken it up a notch. It will take some time for them to gel since they have to learn new blocking techniques, but early reports say the line is picking them up rather quickly. I expect them to be a more formidable force later in the season. You can only expect the WR core to drop off in production with the loss of WR Charles Rogers, but there is some talent returning. Special teams can only improve after ranking in the lower third of the league last season. MSU’s non-conference slate is filled with a bunch of cream puffs, but their Big 10 schedule is a killer. I expect them to better last seasons 4 win total, and a trip to a bowl game in HC Smith’s first season is definitely a possibility.
-- MSU is 2-9 ATS as a home chalk the L/2 year’s.
INDIANA HOOSIERS O:7 D:7 (3-9)
HC Gerry Dinardo did a fine job in his debut season with the talent on hand. His program is still very young, and not deep at all. This will be another tough season for the Hoosier faithful, but it will be much better down the road. QB Matt Lovecchio is a name you might remember from when he played at Notre Dame, and he is now the starting QB for the Hoosiers. His experience alone will cut down on the amount of TO’s this season. All the specialty players on offense return, and the O-line is in its second year of picking up the new blocking schemes. The offense should be more efficient this season, but is still a year or 2 away from being a formidable group. The D-line returns 3 starters from a year ago, and has plenty more depth. They should improve on last year’s numbers as long as they stay healthy. The LB core looks pretty weak, but the secondary looks to make a giant leap in the Big 10 standings. It doesn’t look good for the Hoosiers this year at all, but I believe HC Dinardo was the right man to turn this program around. He proved to be a winning coach in the SEC at LSU, and he’s done a solid job already taking over for Cam Cameron. Some say that patience is a virtue, and fellow Hoosiers will need a bunch of it till August of next year.
-- Indy’s 4-6 ATS as a road pup the L/2 years.
